The trucking industry was recently informed that Venezuela’s future could help determine U.S. diesel prices, a statement that immediately caused drivers to nod politely and continue doing exactly what they were already doing. The analysis, offered by energy experts, suggests that shifts in Venezuelan oil production and policy could ripple through global markets and affect diesel costs. Truckers translated this as, “So fuel will either go up, down, or do something weird on a Tuesday.”
From the perspective of analysts, the logic is sound. Venezuelan crude is heavy, U.S. refineries like heavy crude, and diesel comes out the other end. From the perspective of drivers, this is the same explanation they’ve heard for 20 years, usually right before diesel climbs another 30 cents for reasons unrelated to Venezuela, gravity, or common sense.
Some experts argue that if conditions align just right, increased Venezuelan supply could ease pressure on diesel markets. Truckers agree this sounds promising, noting that “conditions aligning just right” historically occurs once per decade, often while their truck is in the shop and they’re not buying fuel anyway. Others point out that politics and infrastructure complicate the picture. Truckers say that also sounds familiar and would like to know which part explains why diesel costs more on Fridays.
At a truck stop in Indiana, one driver said he’d already factored Venezuela into his fuel budget, placing it between “weather panic” and “someone sneezed in the oil market.” Another said he assumed diesel prices would rise in anticipation of possible relief, then rise again when the relief didn’t arrive, a strategy he believes oil markets have perfected.
What analysts describe as uncertainty, truckers describe as routine. Fuel prices are influenced by global supply, geopolitical shifts, refinery capacity, seasonal demand, and apparently vibes. Venezuela may matter, but so does whether a refinery coughs, a politician gives a speech, or a headline contains the word “could.”
In the end, truckers say they appreciate being informed that diesel prices are connected to global events. They just wish someone would explain why those global events always seem to happen right before they hit empty, and why the pump never recognizes when the news is supposed to be good.
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